Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Kolos in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 4D 1L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Kolos than their overall form suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 7W 2D 0L from 9 away games — 2.56 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Veres Rivne have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 22% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 33% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.873 / defence 1.049 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.039 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Data: 18 Veres Rivne games / 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 46%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.17. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 22% | Shakhtar Donetsk 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Veres Rivne 0.93 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.873 / def 1.049 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.039 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Kolos.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 26% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
26%
3.84
28%
3.58
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.26
1.33
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.33 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 2D 1L across 18 games — 2.61 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 4W 4D 1L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 7W 2D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.72 scored and 0.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 (2.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.78 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
7
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 22% BTTS, Shakhtar Donetsk 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Veres Rivne and 56% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 67%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 33% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 56% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 24, as Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Shakhtar Donetsk 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.