Veres Rivne 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 3D 0L at Stadion Avanhard — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Veres Rivne 1.70 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Veres Rivne's 17% rate and FC Kharkiv's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 21% | FC Kharkiv 43%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 36% | FC Kharkiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.03 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.802 / defence 0.789 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.632 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.260. Veres Rivne's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Veres Rivne games / 14 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 44% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — FC Kharkiv's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 17% | FC Kharkiv 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 44% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Veres Rivne 1.03 / FC Kharkiv 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.802 / def 0.789 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.632 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.63
FC Kharkiv xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 44% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.80x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
44%
2.27
34%
2.91
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
1.66
0.63
FC Kharkiv xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.63 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 5W 4D 5L from 14 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 7L across 14 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.36 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 7L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 17% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Veres Rivne and 33% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.03 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.63 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.63 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 44% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 36%, FC Kharkiv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.36 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.