Veres Rivne 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Veres Rivne welcome Lviv to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Premier League appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 0W 2D 4L from 6 Premier League matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.33 vs 0.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Veres Rivne trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lviv trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 33% versus Lviv 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 50% | Lviv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.19 xG and Lviv 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.749 / defence 0.957 | Lviv attack 0.714 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.230. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Veres Rivne games / 6 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 33% | Lviv 24%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Lviv 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 33% | Lviv 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 33% | Lviv 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Veres Rivne 1.19 / Lviv 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.749 / def 0.957 | Lviv attack 0.714 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Lviv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Lviv?
Veres Rivne 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Lviv part of?
Veres Rivne vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 43% chance of winning, Lviv a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Veres Rivne and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and Lviv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.75) and Lviv's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.03
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.03
0.84
Lviv xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.84 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lviv's form line: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Veres Rivne are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lviv in 67%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Lviv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Have Veres Rivne or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lviv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Lviv runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Veres Rivne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Veres Rivne 3-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Lviv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 33%, Lviv 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 50% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games; Lviv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 67% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 50% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Lviv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lviv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.19 xG and Lviv 0.84 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lviv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.75 / defence 0.96 against Lviv attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 33% | Lviv 24%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 50%, Lviv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Veres Rivne conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.