Veres Rivne 0-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Veres Rivne welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 2 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (30 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (30 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 37% versus Dynamo Kyiv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 40% | Dynamo Kyiv 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.783 / defence 1.114 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.266 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.208. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Veres Rivne games / 30 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 22% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 54%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.85. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 22% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Veres Rivne 1.00 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.783 / def 1.114 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.266 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Dynamo Kyiv xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Veres Rivne 0 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 22% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (2 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 2W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
22%
4.50
24%
4.17
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.71
1.71
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.50
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
24.75
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.71 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.27 PPG from 30 outings (21W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Veres Rivne's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.50 points per game from 12 outings (10W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.23 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 21W 5D 4L in their last 30 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.33 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
9
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 10 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Veres Rivne) and 67% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 50%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Veres Rivne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Veres Rivne 0-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.27 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 22% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 54%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 40%, Dynamo Kyiv 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (30 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (30 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.