Veres Rivne 0-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Avangard to face Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avangard: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dnipro-1 are 1.10 PPG clear of Veres Rivne in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Veres Rivne lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 38% versus Dnipro-1 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 41% | Dnipro-1 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.16 xG and Dnipro-1 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.955 / defence 1.171 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.158 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.401. Data: 35 Veres Rivne games / 34 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 23% | Draw 22% | Dnipro-1 55%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Dnipro-1 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 50% | Dnipro-1 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Avangard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 23% | Draw 22% | Dnipro-1 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Veres Rivne 1.16 / Dnipro-1 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.955 / def 1.171 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.158 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Dnipro-1 xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadion Avangard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Veres Rivne 0 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avangard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 23% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Record (2 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 2W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.16x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
23%
4.33
22%
4.48
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
3.06
1.90
Dnipro-1 xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
28.94
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.90 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 7D 16L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 24W 4D 6L from 34 games, 2.24 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 9W 2D 4L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.00 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 24W 4D 6L in their last 34 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.13 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 40%, Dnipro-1 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Veres Rivne) and 60% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 40%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 47% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 60% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Veres Rivne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Veres Rivne 0-1 at Stadion Avangard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.16 xG and Dnipro-1 1.90 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 23% | Draw 22% | Dnipro-1 55%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 41%, Dnipro-1 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (34 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (34 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.