Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Kolos: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Premier League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Kolos than their overall form suggests.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dnipro-1 are 1.20 PPG clear of Veres Rivne in recent Premier League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Veres Rivne lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 22% | Dnipro-1 39%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 33% | Dnipro-1 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.01 xG and Dnipro-1 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.867 / defence 1.043 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.892 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Data: 18 Veres Rivne games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 39%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Dnipro-1 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 22% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Veres Rivne 1.01 / Dnipro-1 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.867 / def 1.043 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.892 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Kolos.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 32% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.89x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.39
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.14
1.14
Dnipro-1 xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.14 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 6W 5D 7L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 13W 1D 4L from 18 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.78 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Dnipro-1) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Veres Rivne and 56% for Dnipro-1.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 44%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 33% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 56% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 23, as Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.01 xG and Dnipro-1 1.14 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 39%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Dnipro-1 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.