Veres Rivne vs Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Desna travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Veres Rivne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne at Stadion Kolos this season: 4W 4D 1L from 9 home games — 1.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Kolos than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Desna have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Veres Rivne 1.20 PPG, Desna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Veres Rivne have won 1, Desna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Veres Rivne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Desna in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 22% | Desna 44%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 33% | Desna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.15 xG and Desna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.850 / defence 1.027 | Desna attack 0.791 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Veres Rivne games / 18 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Desna 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Desna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 22% | Desna 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Desna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Veres Rivne 1.15 / Desna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.850 / def 1.027 | Desna attack 0.791 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Desna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Desna kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Desna kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion Kolos.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Desna part of?
Veres Rivne vs Desna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, Desna a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 1W | Draws 0 | Desna 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Desna in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Desna's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.39
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
Desna xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.99 for Desna, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.28 PPG, Desna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 4W 4D 1L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Desna's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Desna in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Desna away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.78 PPG; Desna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 1, Desna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2021, when Desna 0-4 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Desna?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 22% BTTS, Desna 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Veres Rivne and 56% for Desna.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Desna in 33%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games; Desna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 44% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 56% of Desna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Desna tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Desna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 21, as Veres Rivne and Desna drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.15 xG and Desna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Desna attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Desna 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Desna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.28 PPG, Desna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.