Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk at this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Livyi Bereh (all games): 3W 5D 0L across 8 Premier League outings this term — 1.75 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 0.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.38 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh's away record: 1W 3D 0L from 4 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 25% | Livyi Bereh 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | Livyi Bereh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.219 / defence 0.860 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.880 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.042. Data: 37 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 6 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 45% | Draw 35% | Livyi Bereh 20%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Livyi Bereh 5.00. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 10% | Livyi Bereh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 45% | Draw 35% | Livyi Bereh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 / Livyi Bereh 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.219 / def 0.860 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.880 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Livyi Bereh xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 45% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
Record (2 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 2W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-0L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 0.38 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.22) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.88x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 37/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
45%
2.22
35%
2.86
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.07
0.79
Livyi Bereh xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.79 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 5W 0D 3L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 0L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Shakhtar Donetsk against 1.75 for Livyi Bereh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.88 scored and 0.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 1.50 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 50% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 50%; Shakhtar Donetsk have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 50% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.