Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus FC Mariupol in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 8W 0D 1L at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 3.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Mariupol (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.80 PPG return is 2.40 points per game ahead of FC Mariupol's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, FC Mariupol in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 1W, FC Mariupol 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 5–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Mariupol — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus FC Mariupol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shakhtar Donetsk 61% | FC Mariupol 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.37 xG and FC Mariupol 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.518 / defence 1.052 | FC Mariupol attack 0.921 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 18 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 19% | FC Mariupol 18%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | FC Mariupol 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | FC Mariupol 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 19% | FC Mariupol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.37 / FC Mariupol 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.518 / def 1.052 | FC Mariupol attack 0.921 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Mariupol xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 64% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.52x the league average against FC Mariupol's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Mariupol's attack (0.92x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.38
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.56
1.18
FC Mariupol xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
9%
10.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
2%
60.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.18 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.61 PPG on a 15W 2D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol's form line: 2W 2D 14L from 18 games, 0.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 2.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Mariupol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.67 PPG from 9 outings (8W 0D 1L).
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.44 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.17 scored and 2.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 61%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 games (2.61 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or FC Mariupol away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.67 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-5 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 67% for FC Mariupol — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 67% for FC Mariupol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 67% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 67% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shakhtar Donetsk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Mariupol finished level at 0-0 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.37 xG and FC Mariupol 1.18 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 2.4 short of their projected output. FC Mariupol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.52 / defence 1.05 against FC Mariupol attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 19% | FC Mariupol 18%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, FC Mariupol 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.22 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.