Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Dnipro-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 4W 1D 1L from 6 Premier League matches — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at NSK Olimpijs'kyj: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shakhtar Donetsk at 2.17 PPG versus Dnipro-1's 2.17. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shakhtar Donetsk register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Dnipro-1 in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus Dnipro-1 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Dnipro-1 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 xG and Dnipro-1 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.040 / defence 1.165 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.064 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.165. Data: 6 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 6 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 34% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 38%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Dnipro-1 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Dnipro-1 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 34% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 / Dnipro-1 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.040 / def 1.165 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.064 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Dnipro-1 xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 Dnipro-1.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 34% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.04x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.48
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.80
1.44
Dnipro-1 xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.44 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 4W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1's form line: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shakhtar Donetsk on 2.17 PPG, Dnipro-1 on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Dnipro-1's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 in 67%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shakhtar Donetsk at 67%, Dnipro-1 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 100% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Dnipro-1?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 67% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dnipro-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Dnipro-1 2-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 xG and Dnipro-1 1.44 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dnipro-1 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 34% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 38%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shakhtar Donetsk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, Dnipro-1 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shakhtar Donetsk 2.17 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.