Ruh Lviv 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena L'viv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.30 for FC Kharkiv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ruh Lviv lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 43% versus FC Kharkiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 29% | FC Kharkiv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.13 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.814 / defence 1.053 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.596 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.217. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ruh Lviv games / 15 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 25%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | FC Kharkiv 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.13 / FC Kharkiv 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.814 / def 1.053 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.596 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.76
FC Kharkiv xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 44% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.81) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.60x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.22
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.90
0.76
FC Kharkiv xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.76 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 3W 4D 7L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 5W 1D 8L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.14 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ruh Lviv and 33% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.13 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.76 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.60 / defence 1.26, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 25%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 29%, FC Kharkiv 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 0.93 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.