Ruh Lviv 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Lviv meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ruh Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lviv (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Premier League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 0.40 for Lviv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lviv in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ruh Lviv 60% and Lviv 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 40% | Lviv 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.83 xG and Lviv 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / defence 1.070 | Lviv attack 0.839 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.273. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Ruh Lviv games / 5 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 50% | Draw 29% | Lviv 20%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Lviv 5.00. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Lviv 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 50% | Draw 29% | Lviv 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.83 / Lviv 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / def 1.070 | Lviv attack 0.839 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Lviv xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 50% chance of winning, Lviv a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Lviv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.84x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.41
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.97
1.14
Lviv xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.14 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lviv sit at 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lviv in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Lviv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Ruh Lviv, 80% for Lviv — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ruh Lviv) and 60% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ruh Lviv's games and 80% of Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 60% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Lviv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lviv in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Lviv 1-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.83 xG and Lviv 1.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 50% | Draw 29% | Lviv 20%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 40%, Lviv 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.