Ruh Lviv 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Kolos Kovalivka travel to Arena L'viv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena L'viv — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.30 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Kolos Kovalivka 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 41% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.45 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.082 / defence 1.014 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.715 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.444. Data: 32 Ruh Lviv games / 34 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 46% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.70. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 70% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 46% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.45 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.082 / def 1.014 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.715 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kolos Kovalivka xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 46% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.08) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.80
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.50
1.05
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.05 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 14L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.09 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 4W 7D 4L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.84 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.27 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 60%, Kolos Kovalivka 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Ruh Lviv and 27% for Kolos Kovalivka.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 33%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 27% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 27% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 27% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.45 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 46% | Draw 26% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 41%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.09 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.