Ruh Lviv 3-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inhulets at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Ruh Lviv welcome Inhulets to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Inhulets's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Inhulets and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Inhulets winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 51% versus Inhulets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 37% | Inhulets 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.84 xG and Inhulets 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.829 / defence 0.913 | Inhulets attack 0.895 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.155. Data: 41 Ruh Lviv games / 41 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 36%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Inhulets 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ruh Lviv 80% | Inhulets 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.84 / Inhulets 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.829 / def 0.913 | Inhulets attack 0.895 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Inhulets xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Ruh Lviv 3 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Inhulets a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Inhulets (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.83x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
31%
3.27
33%
3.03
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.78
0.94
Inhulets xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.94 for Inhulets, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 15D 18L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 10W 10D 21L from 41 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 0.95 PPG, Inhulets on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (5W 10D 5L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.80 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Inhulets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.25 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 60%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 30% of games; Inhulets in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ruh Lviv's games and 50% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Inhulets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Inhulets 3-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.84 xG and Inhulets 0.94 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Inhulets attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 36%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 37%, Inhulets 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Inhulets's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 0.95 PPG, Inhulets 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.