Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ruh Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 4D 1L at Arena L'viv — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.00 PPG, Chornomorets 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–4 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Chornomorets 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 24% | Chornomorets 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.904 / defence 1.058 | Chornomorets attack 0.822 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Chornomorets 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 38% | Chornomorets 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.26 / Chornomorets 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.904 / def 1.058 | Chornomorets attack 0.822 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 41% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.90) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.57
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.32
1.06
Chornomorets xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.06 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 6D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.06 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.18 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.43 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 29%, Chornomorets 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Ruh Lviv) and 86% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 43% of games; Chornomorets in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 71% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 86% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets finished level at 0-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG and Chornomorets 1.06 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.26, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 31%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Chornomorets 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG, Chornomorets 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.