Oleksandria 3-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oleksandria have posted 5W 3D 2L at KSK Nika — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Oleksandria, 1.30 for Vorskla Poltava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Oleksandria register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Vorskla Poltava in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Oleksandria 0W, Vorskla Poltava 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 60% versus Vorskla Poltava 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 51% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 2.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.430 / defence 1.183 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.050 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.378. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vorskla Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Oleksandria games / 36 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 21% | Vorskla Poltava 33%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Vorskla Poltava 3.03. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 80% | Vorskla Poltava 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 21% | Vorskla Poltava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Oleksandria 2.04 / Vorskla Poltava 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.430 / def 1.183 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.050 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Vorskla Poltava xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria 3 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 46% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.43x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (1.05x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
46%
2.18
21%
4.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
3.75
1.71
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
4%
23.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.71 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 14W 12D 9L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 14W 10D 11L from 35 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.49 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.43 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 14W 12D 9L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.88 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Oleksandria, 69% for Vorskla Poltava — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Oleksandria) and 56% (Vorskla Poltava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Oleksandria's games and 69% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Oleksandria's matches and 56% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 3-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 2.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.71 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.43 / defence 1.18 against Vorskla Poltava attack 1.05 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 46% | Draw 21% | Vorskla Poltava 33%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 51%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.54 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.