Oleksandria 0-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 24 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Inhulets have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Inhulets arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Inhulets in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for Inhulets and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 58% versus Inhulets 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 50% | Inhulets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.57 xG and Inhulets 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.343 / defence 0.993 | Inhulets attack 0.959 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.255. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Oleksandria games / 38 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 29%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Inhulets 3.45. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Inhulets (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 70% | Inhulets 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Oleksandria 1.57 / Inhulets 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.343 / def 0.993 | Inhulets attack 0.959 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Inhulets xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Inhulets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Oleksandria 0 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Inhulets part of?
Oleksandria vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 46% chance of winning, Inhulets a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Oleksandria and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 2W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Inhulets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Inhulets (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.34x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.96x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
46%
2.17
25%
4.01
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
Inhulets xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.20 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 15W 14D 9L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 10W 8D 20L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.87 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 15W 14D 9L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Inhulets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.89 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Inhulets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Inhulets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 61%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Inhulets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Inhulets in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Oleksandria's games and 50% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Oleksandria's matches and 50% of Inhulets's.
Do Oleksandria and Inhulets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 22, as Oleksandria and Inhulets drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.57 xG and Inhulets 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Inhulets landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.34 / defence 0.99 against Inhulets attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 46% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 29%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Inhulets 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.