Oleksandria 1-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 10 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games (1.83 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Oleksandria's 1.83 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of Inhulets's 1.17 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Inhulets 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 33% | Inhulets 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Inhulets 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.931 / defence 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.794 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.199. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Oleksandria games / 6 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 30% | Inhulets 27%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Inhulets 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 50% | Inhulets 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 30% | Inhulets 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Oleksandria 1.42 / Inhulets 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.931 / def 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.794 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Inhulets xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Inhulets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 September 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Inhulets part of?
Oleksandria vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 43% chance of winning, Inhulets a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oleksandria and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Inhulets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Inhulets (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.93x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.79x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.34
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Inhulets xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.09 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 3W 2D 1L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inhulets's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inhulets in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Oleksandria or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Inhulets in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Inhulets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Inhulets?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Inhulets 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Oleksandria) and 67% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Oleksandria's games and 67% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Oleksandria's recent games and 67% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Inhulets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Inhulets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Inhulets 1-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Inhulets 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Inhulets attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 43% | Draw 30% | Inhulets 27%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 33%, Inhulets 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.