Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to KSK Nika to take on Oleksandria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 games at KSK Nika this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 1D 0L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 1 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus Dynamo Kyiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 39% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.11 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.985 / defence 1.070 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.265 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 18 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.00. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 43% | Dynamo Kyiv 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Oleksandria 1.11 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.985 / def 1.070 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.265 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Dynamo Kyiv xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 26% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.98x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
26%
3.92
24%
4.10
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.76
1.65
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
20.49
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.65 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.50 PPG from 18 outings (14W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 3.00 points per game from 7 outings (7W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.50 PPG overall record — Dynamo Kyiv travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.61 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Oleksandria's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Dynamo Kyiv 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 57% (Dynamo Kyiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 43% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Oleksandria's matches and 57% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv finished level at 0-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.11 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.65 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.26 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 39%, Dynamo Kyiv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.