Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 5W 1D 3L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus Dnipro-1 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 39% | Dnipro-1 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.18 xG and Dnipro-1 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.991 / defence 1.097 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.882 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 36% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 36%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 43% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 36% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Oleksandria 1.18 / Dnipro-1 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.991 / def 1.097 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.882 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 36% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.88x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.58
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Dnipro-1 xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.19 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 7W 5D 6L from 18 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 13W 1D 4L across 18 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 4W 0D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.94 conceded. Dnipro-1's attacking output running into Oleksandria's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Dnipro-1 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 43% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 43%; Dnipro-1 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 29% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oleksandria's recent games and 43% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 30, as Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.18 xG and Dnipro-1 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 36% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 36%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 39%, Dnipro-1 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.