Oleksandria vs Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Desna at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KSK Nika, Oleksandria have gone 4W 0D 3L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Desna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oleksandria at 1.20 PPG versus Desna's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oleksandria have won 0, Desna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Desna in-play tendencies (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus Desna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 39% | Desna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.31 xG and Desna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / defence 1.087 | Desna attack 0.808 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 18 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Desna 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Desna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 43% | Desna 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Desna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Oleksandria 1.31 / Desna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / def 1.087 | Desna attack 0.808 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Desna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Desna kick off?
Oleksandria vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Desna part of?
Oleksandria vs Desna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 42% chance of winning, Desna a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Oleksandria and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Desna 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Desna in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Desna's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.63
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.38
1.07
Desna xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.07 for Desna, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.44 PPG, Desna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Desna in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Desna away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Desna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Desna runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Desna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2021, when Desna 1-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Desna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 43% (Desna).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Desna in 43%; Desna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 43% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oleksandria's recent games and 43% of Desna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Desna tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Desna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 27, as Oleksandria and Desna drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.31 xG and Desna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Desna attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 42% | Draw 28% | Desna 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 39%, Desna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.44 PPG, Desna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.