Minai 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Minai have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's home record at Stadion Mynai: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Kryvbas KR's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Minai's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Minai, 0 for Kryvbas KR and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Minai in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 50% versus Kryvbas KR 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 25% | Kryvbas KR 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.26 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.879 / defence 1.164 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.972 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.219. Data: 38 Minai games / 20 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 34% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 40%. Fair-value odds: Minai 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Kryvbas KR 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Minai 50% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 34% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Minai 1.26 / Kryvbas KR 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.879 / def 1.164 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.972 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Kryvbas KR xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Minai vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Minai 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Minai vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Minai vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 34% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Minai and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
Record (1 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 1 | Kryvbas KR 0W.
What form are Minai and Kryvbas KR in?
Minai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Minai's attack at 0.88x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.83
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Minai xG
Total xG
2.64
1.38
Kryvbas KR xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Minai and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Minai and 1.38 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Minai have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 4W 6D 10L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 8W 4D 8L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Minai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Minai have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.67 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Minai or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Minai have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Minai's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Minai
1
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
From 4 meetings on record, Minai have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 56%, Kryvbas KR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Minai) and 56% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Kryvbas KR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Minai's games and 56% of Kryvbas KR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Minai vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Minai's recent games and 56% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Minai defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.26 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.38 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 34% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 40%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Minai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 25%, Kryvbas KR 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Minai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.