Minai 0-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 36%, yet in-form Minai provide a compelling counter-argument — this Minai vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Chornomorets travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's home record at Stadion Mynai: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Chornomorets — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Minai carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Minai, 0 for Chornomorets and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Minai in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 46% versus Chornomorets 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 36% | Chornomorets 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 0.88 xG and Chornomorets 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.738 / defence 0.939 | Chornomorets attack 0.821 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.237. Minai's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Minai games / 28 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 32% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 36%. Fair-value odds: Minai 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Chornomorets 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chornomorets are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Minai (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Minai 50% | Chornomorets 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 32% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Minai 0.88 / Chornomorets 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.738 / def 0.939 | Chornomorets attack 0.821 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Minai xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Chornomorets xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Chornomorets kick off?
Minai vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Chornomorets?
Minai 0 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Minai vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Chornomorets part of?
Minai vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 32% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Minai and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Minai and Chornomorets in?
Minai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Minai's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.08
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Minai xG
Total xG
1.83
0.95
Chornomorets xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Minai and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Minai and 0.95 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Minai's recent record stands at 3W 10D 15L from 28 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 17L across 28 games — 0.61 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Minai on 0.68 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Minai have managed 1W 7D 5L from 13 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 1W 4D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Minai are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.89 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 games (0.68 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 8D 17L in their last 28 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Chornomorets away?
Minai's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.77 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Minai and Chornomorets runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Minai's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Minai
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Chornomorets?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Minai 2-0 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 54%, Chornomorets 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Minai) and 69% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 38% of games; Chornomorets in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Minai's games and 62% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Minai vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Minai's recent games and 69% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out Minai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Minai 0-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 0.88 xG and Chornomorets 0.95 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Minai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 32% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 36%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 36%, Chornomorets 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Minai 0.68 PPG, Chornomorets 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.