Metalurh Zaporizhya 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ukrajina plays host to Metalurh Zaporizhya versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Saturday 10 June 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Veres Rivne's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metalurh Zaporizhya 1.29 xG and Veres Rivne 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 1.010 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.173. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Metalurh Zaporizhya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Metalurh Zaporizhya games / 48 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metalurh Zaporizhya 35% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 39%. Fair-value odds: Metalurh Zaporizhya 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Veres Rivne 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metalurh Zaporizhya 35% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Metalurh Zaporizhya 1.29 / Veres Rivne 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 1.010 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Metalurh Zaporizhya xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Veres Rivne xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Stadion Ukrajina.
What was the final score in Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne?
Metalurh Zaporizhya 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne part of?
Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Metalurh Zaporizhya a 35% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Veres Rivne away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Metalurh Zaporizhya's attack at 0.85x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (1.01x) against Metalurh Zaporizhya's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 0/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.83
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Metalurh Zaporizhya xG
Total xG
2.65
1.36
Veres Rivne xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 1.36 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Pre-Season
Veres Rivne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne?
From 2 meetings on record, Metalurh Zaporizhya have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metalurh Zaporizhya and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2023, when Veres Rivne 6-1 Metalurh Zaporizhya.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metalurh Zaporizhya home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Metalurh Zaporizhya defy the odds to beat Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metalurh Zaporizhya beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at Stadion Ukrajina, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalurh Zaporizhya 1.29 xG and Veres Rivne 1.36 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Veres Rivne attack 1.01 / defence 1.33, drawn from 0/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metalurh Zaporizhya 35% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 39%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Metalurh Zaporizhya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.