FC Kharkiv 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 46% as FC Kharkiv take on Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.70 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.712 / away 0.678. Data: 0 FC Kharkiv games / 0 Ruh Lviv games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 46% | Ruh Lviv 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.57 | Draw 2.17 | Ruh Lviv 3.85. The draw (46%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.36. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.36 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 46% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.36 combined xG gives a 16% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 46% | Ruh Lviv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 28% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.70 / Ruh Lviv 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.712 / away 0.678 • Poisson stance: Draw (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Ruh Lviv xG
28%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv 2 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 28% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 26% chance, and a 46% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.85) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.85x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 0-1 (15.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
46%
2.17
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.36
0.66
Ruh Lviv xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.17
46%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.59
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.7 | 17.0 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.3%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.66 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Pre-Season
Ruh Lviv
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Ruh Lviv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.70 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.66 xG, a combined 1.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 28% | Draw 46% | Ruh Lviv 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.