FC Kharkiv 2-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Inhulets travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 3W 2D 5L at NSK Olimpijs'kyj — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG, Inhulets 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Inhulets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 4–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 37% versus Inhulets 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Inhulets 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG and Inhulets 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.870 / defence 1.365 | Inhulets attack 0.858 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.230. Data: 29 FC Kharkiv games / 27 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Inhulets 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Inhulets 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 40% | Inhulets 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Inhulets 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.29 / Inhulets 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.870 / def 1.365 | Inhulets attack 0.858 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Inhulets xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
FC Kharkiv 2 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 34% chance of winning, Inhulets a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.87) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.91
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.73
1.44
Inhulets xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.44 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 6D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.74 PPG from 27 outings (4W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.00 PPG, Inhulets on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 15L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Inhulets away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.21 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Inhulets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Inhulets 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Inhulets?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 43%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Kharkiv) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 36% of games; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Inhulets tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Inhulets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Inhulets 2-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG and Inhulets 1.44 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.87 / defence 1.36 against Inhulets attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Inhulets 41%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Inhulets 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG, Inhulets 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.