FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadion to face FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tsentralnyi Stadion, FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in FC Kharkiv's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Kharkiv lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.71 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.260 / defence 0.728 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.088 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.042. FC Kharkiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 FC Kharkiv games / 37 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 56% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 56% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.71 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.260 / def 0.728 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.088 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 56% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 2 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 1.26x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (1.09x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
56%
1.80
29%
3.45
15%
6.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.53
0.82
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.55
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
36.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.82 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 17W 12D 7L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 16L across 36 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.82 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.12 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 24% (FC Kharkiv) and 35% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (FC Kharkiv) and 59% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 35% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 59% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.