Lviv vs Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lviv at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Veres Rivne travel to Stadion Ukrajina to take on Lviv. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv at Stadion Ukrajina this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ukrajina this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne away from home this season: 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lviv 1.40 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lviv have won 0, Veres Rivne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Veres Rivne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lviv in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 56% versus Veres Rivne 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 39% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.09 xG and Veres Rivne 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.822 / defence 1.221 | Veres Rivne attack 0.715 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. Data: 18 Lviv games / 18 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 36% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Veres Rivne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Lviv 60% | Veres Rivne 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 36% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Lviv 1.09 / Veres Rivne 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.822 / def 1.221 | Veres Rivne attack 0.715 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Lviv (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Lviv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
Where is Lviv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Lviv vs Veres Rivne part of?
Lviv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 36% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lviv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Lviv and Veres Rivne in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.82) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.39
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.15
1.06
Veres Rivne xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lviv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lviv and 1.06 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lviv on 0.94 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.83 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 22%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.67 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Lviv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Veres Rivne have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Veres Rivne?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Veres Rivne 3-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 56%, Veres Rivne 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lviv) and 56% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 33%; Lviv have failed to score in 44% of games; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lviv's recent matches and 22% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lviv's recent games and 56% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 22, as Lviv and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.09 xG and Veres Rivne 1.06 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Veres Rivne attack 0.71 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 36% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 39%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.94 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.