Lviv 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Lviv take on Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk make the trip to Arena L'viv to face Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 30 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lviv (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 2.00 PPG clear of Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Lviv register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.11 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.959 / defence 1.171 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 0.871. Data: 1 Lviv games / 1 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lviv 37% | Draw 39% | Shakhtar Donetsk 24%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.70 | Draw 2.56 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 37% | Draw 39% | Shakhtar Donetsk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Lviv 1.11 / Shakhtar Donetsk 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.959 / def 1.171 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.008 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Lviv 0 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 37% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lviv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (0.85x) against Lviv's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
39%
2.58
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Lviv xG
Total xG
1.98
0.87
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Lviv and 0.87 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lviv come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Lviv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into Lviv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lviv have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-1 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lviv have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 4 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lviv's games and 100% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lviv's recent games and 100% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Lviv 0-3 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.11 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 0.87 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 37% | Draw 39% | Shakhtar Donetsk 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Shakhtar Donetsk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 0%, Shakhtar Donetsk 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lviv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.