Lviv 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lviv — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Oleksandria's 2.00 PPG return is 1.67 points per game ahead of Lviv's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 67% versus Oleksandria 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 67% | Oleksandria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.84 xG and Oleksandria 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.768 / defence 1.324 | Oleksandria attack 0.810 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.219. Lviv's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Lviv games / 3 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 20% | Draw 36% | Oleksandria 44%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 5.00 | Draw 2.78 | Oleksandria 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 67% | Oleksandria 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 20% | Draw 36% | Oleksandria 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Lviv 0.84 / Oleksandria 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.768 / def 1.324 | Oleksandria attack 0.810 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Oleksandria xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Lviv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Lviv 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Lviv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Oleksandria part of?
Lviv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 20% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 44% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lviv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Oleksandria in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 D-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.77x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
20%
4.97
36%
2.76
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.15
1.31
Oleksandria xG
4.97
20%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lviv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Lviv and 1.31 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lviv have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lviv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Oleksandria runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oleksandria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Lviv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Oleksandria?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Oleksandria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 67%, Oleksandria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lviv) and 33% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 33%; Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lviv's recent matches and 33% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lviv's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lviv and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv and Oleksandria finished level at 1-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.84 xG and Oleksandria 1.31 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.77 / defence 1.32 against Oleksandria attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 20% | Draw 36% | Oleksandria 44%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 67%, Oleksandria 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lviv conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.