Lviv vs Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lviv at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Minai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lviv and Minai meet at Stadion Ukrajina in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadion Ukrajina — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ukrajina this season.
Minai have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's away record: 0W 2D 7L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Lviv's favour (1.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lviv, 0 for Minai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 56% versus Minai 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 39% | Minai 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.27 xG and Minai 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.842 / defence 1.214 | Minai attack 0.709 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Minai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Lviv games / 18 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Minai 31%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Minai 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 60% | Minai 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Minai 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lviv 1.27 / Minai 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.842 / def 1.214 | Minai attack 0.709 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Minai xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Minai kick off?
Lviv vs Minai kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
Where is Lviv vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Lviv vs Minai part of?
Lviv vs Minai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 41% chance of winning, Minai a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lviv and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | Minai 0W.
What form are Lviv and Minai in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.84) and Minai's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.71x) against Lviv's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.58
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.32
1.05
Minai xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lviv and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lviv and 1.05 for Minai, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lviv come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 5D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Minai sit at 0.56 PPG from 18 outings (1W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Lviv against 0.56 for Minai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lviv's home form reads 1W 3D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Minai have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lviv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Minai in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 7D 10L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Minai away?
Lviv's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.67 PPG; Minai away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lviv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Lviv
0
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Minai?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 3, Minai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2023, when Lviv 1-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Minai?
Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lviv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 56%, Minai 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lviv) and 44% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 44% of games; Minai in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lviv's recent matches and 33% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lviv's recent games and 44% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Minai tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Minai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv and Minai finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.27 xG and Minai 1.05 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Minai landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Minai attack 0.71 / defence 1.37, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Minai 31%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 39%, Minai 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.94 PPG, Minai 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.