Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kudrivka have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's home record at : 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Kudrivka, 1.40 for LNZ Cherkasy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kudrivka lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Kudrivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 57% versus LNZ Cherkasy 19%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 51% | LNZ Cherkasy 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.27 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.066 / defence 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.701 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.042. Data: 36 Kudrivka games / 37 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 41% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kudrivka as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kudrivka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 41% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Kudrivka 1.27 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.066 / def 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.701 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.95
LNZ Cherkasy xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027.
What competition is Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 41% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Kudrivka 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.07x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.70x) against Kudrivka's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
41%
2.45
35%
2.89
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.95 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 7W 11D 19L from 37 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 9L across 37 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 10W 4D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kudrivka are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.19 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 19%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 7W 11D 19L in their last 37 games (0.86 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.26 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Kudrivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 63%, LNZ Cherkasy 16% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Kudrivka) and 37% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 63%; Kudrivka have failed to score in 26% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 16% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Kudrivka's recent games and 37% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.