Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Lviv travel to Stadion Kovalivka to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's home record at Stadion Kovalivka: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Premier League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Lviv — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Kolos Kovalivka) versus 0.60 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Lviv trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 27% versus Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 27% | Lviv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.08 xG and Lviv 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.777 / defence 1.230 | Lviv attack 0.766 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.145. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Kolos Kovalivka games / 12 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 34% | Draw 32% | Lviv 34%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Lviv 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Kolos Kovalivka 50% | Lviv 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 34% | Draw 32% | Lviv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.08 / Lviv 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.777 / def 1.230 | Lviv attack 0.766 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Lviv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 34% chance of winning, Lviv a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Lviv (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.78) and Lviv's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.11
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.16
1.08
Lviv xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.08 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 2D 6L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kolos Kovalivka are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Lviv have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Lviv away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.80 PPG; Lviv away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kolos Kovalivka have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 60%, Lviv 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 40% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 40% of games; Lviv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kolos Kovalivka's games and 60% of Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 40% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lviv in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lviv edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.08 xG and Lviv 1.08 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Lviv attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 34% | Draw 32% | Lviv 34%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 27%, Lviv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lviv's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.