Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 41%, yet in-form FC Kharkiv provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets at Stadion Inhulets this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Inhulets have won 0, FC Kharkiv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inhulets trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
FC Kharkiv trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | FC Kharkiv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.20 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.876 / defence 1.123 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.708 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 30%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | FC Kharkiv 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inhulets are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 38% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Inhulets 1.20 / FC Kharkiv 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.876 / def 1.123 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.708 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
Where is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 41% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Inhulets and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.88) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.43
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.97 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 4D 10L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (5W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.76 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Inhulets's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.88 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Inhulets 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 38%, FC Kharkiv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Inhulets) and 38% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 50% of games; FC Kharkiv in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Inhulets's recent matches and 38% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Inhulets's recent games and 38% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 27, as Inhulets and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.20 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 41% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 30%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, FC Kharkiv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.76 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.