Inhulets 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Inhulets welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Inhulets, 0 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (28 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (28 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 50% versus Dynamo Kyiv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Dynamo Kyiv 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.05 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.819 / defence 0.925 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.186 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.202. Data: 28 Inhulets games / 29 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 30% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 30% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Inhulets 1.05 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.819 / def 0.925 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.186 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dynamo Kyiv xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 17 November 2022 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Inhulets 1 - 2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 30% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Kyiv 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.63
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.37
1.32
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.32 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets's recent record stands at 4W 8D 16L from 28 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 4L across 28 games — 2.21 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 9W 1D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.18 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 16L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 19W 5D 4L in their last 28 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.92 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 42%, Dynamo Kyiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Inhulets) and 58% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 50%; Inhulets have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Inhulets's recent matches and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Inhulets's recent games and 58% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Inhulets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Inhulets 1-2 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.05 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.32 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 30% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.