Inhulets 0-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Zirka to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Inhulets (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 1W 2D 2L at Stadion Zirka — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Inhulets 42% | Dnipro-1 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Dnipro-1 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.774 / defence 1.127 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.793 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.213. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Inhulets games / 13 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 28% | Draw 34% | Dnipro-1 38%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Dnipro-1 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 40% | Dnipro-1 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Zirka • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 28% | Draw 34% | Dnipro-1 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Inhulets 0.90 / Dnipro-1 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.774 / def 1.127 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.793 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dnipro-1 xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Zirka.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Inhulets 0 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zirka.
What competition is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 28% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Inhulets and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.77) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.79x) against Inhulets's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.92
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.99
1.08
Dnipro-1 xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.08 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 3D 7L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (8W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Inhulets's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 in 25%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 0D 4L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Inhulets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 40%, Dnipro-1 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Inhulets) and 40% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Inhulets have failed to score in 40% of games; Dnipro-1 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Inhulets's recent matches and 40% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Inhulets's recent games and 40% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Inhulets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Inhulets 0-1 at Stadion Zirka, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.08 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 28% | Draw 34% | Dnipro-1 38%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Dnipro-1 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.