Inhulets 1-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Inhulets to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Inhulets this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Chornomorets have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Inhulets lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 48% versus Chornomorets 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 48% | Chornomorets 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.18 xG and Chornomorets 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 1.002 / defence 0.885 | Chornomorets attack 1.075 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.387. Data: 33 Inhulets games / 35 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Chornomorets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 50% | Chornomorets 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Inhulets 1.18 / Chornomorets 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 1.002 / def 0.885 | Chornomorets attack 1.075 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Chornomorets xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Chornomorets kick off?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Inhulets 1 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is Inhulets vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Chornomorets part of?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 33% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inhulets and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in?
Inhulets (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inhulets's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.07x) against Inhulets's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 33/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.71
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.50
1.32
Chornomorets xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.32 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 8D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.88 PPG from 33 outings (6W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Inhulets against 0.88 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Inhulets's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.03 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 8W 8D 17L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 6W 11D 16L in their last 33 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Chornomorets away?
Inhulets's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.33 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 40%, Chornomorets 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Inhulets) and 67% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Inhulets have failed to score in 33% of games; Chornomorets in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Inhulets's recent matches and 67% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Inhulets's recent games and 67% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out Inhulets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Inhulets 1-2 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.18 xG and Chornomorets 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Chornomorets attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 33% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 40%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 48%, Chornomorets 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.97 PPG, Chornomorets 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.