Kryvbas KR 3-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR host Polessya at Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Hirnyk — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kryvbas KR at 1.60 PPG versus Polessya's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kryvbas KR have won 0, Polessya 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Polessya winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Polessya in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 46% versus Polessya 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 44% | Polessya 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.10 xG and Polessya 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.019 / defence 0.949 | Polessya attack 1.218 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.047. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Kryvbas KR games / 43 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Polessya 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 50% | Polessya 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.10 / Polessya 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.019 / def 0.949 | Polessya attack 1.218 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Polessya (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Polessya xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 32% chance of winning, Polessya a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Kryvbas KR 0W | Draws 1 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Polessya in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Polessya (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
32%
3.11
30%
3.32
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Polessya xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.21 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Kryvbas KR have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 23W 10D 10L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 20W 13D 10L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.84 PPG, Polessya on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kryvbas KR have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 10W 4D 6L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.40 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Polessya have gone 20W 13D 10L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Polessya away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.80 PPG; Polessya away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Polessya go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Polessya 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Polessya in 40%; Polessya in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 40% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Polessya tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Polessya in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Polessya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Polessya 3-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.10 xG and Polessya 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Polessya attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 30% | Polessya 38%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Polessya 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.84 PPG, Polessya 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.