Kryvbas KR 0-0 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Minai travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Minai have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Kryvbas KR) versus 0.60 (Minai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Minai trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 20% versus Minai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 20% | Minai 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.84 xG and Minai 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.668 / defence 0.991 | Minai attack 1.013 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.272. Kryvbas KR's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Kryvbas KR games / 23 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 25% | Draw 29% | Minai 47%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Minai 2.13. Minai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Minai at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Minai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 20% | Minai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 25% | Draw 29% | Minai 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.84 / Minai 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.668 / def 0.991 | Minai attack 1.013 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Minai (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Minai xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Minai kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Minai kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 0 Minai.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Minai part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Minai is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 25% chance of winning, Minai a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Minai in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Minai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 0.67x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
25%
4.07
29%
3.47
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.12
1.28
Minai xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.28 for Minai, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Minai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Minai by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kryvbas KR heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Minai in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Minai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Minai in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Minai runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Minai specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
1
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Minai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 20%, Minai 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Kryvbas KR and 40% for Minai.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 80% of games; Minai in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 60% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 40% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Minai tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Minai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kryvbas KR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR and Minai finished level at 0-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.84 xG and Minai 1.28 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Minai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.67 / defence 0.99 against Minai attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 25% | Draw 29% | Minai 47%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 20%, Minai 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Minai arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kryvbas KR conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Minai managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.