Kryvbas KR 2-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 28 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dnipro-1 have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dnipro-1 are 1.50 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR in recent Premier League fixtures (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in just 17% of their matches, Dnipro-1 in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 31% versus Dnipro-1 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 31% | Dnipro-1 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.67 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.652 / defence 0.965 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.428 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.163. Kryvbas KR's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Kryvbas KR games / 31 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 15% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 60%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 6.67 | Draw 4.00 | Dnipro-1 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 17% | Dnipro-1 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Monday 28 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 15% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.67 / Dnipro-1 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.652 / def 0.965 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.428 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 28 November 2022 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 15% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (0.65) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.43x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 13/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
15%
6.50
25%
4.05
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.27
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
6.50
15%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
3%
32.30
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.60 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 3D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.77 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Kryvbas KR are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.67 points per game from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.31 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.33 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (Dnipro-1) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Kryvbas KR) and 67% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 50%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 67% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kryvbas KR defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Dnipro-1 2-1 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.67 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.65 / defence 0.96 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.43 / defence 0.83, drawn from 13/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 15% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 60%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kryvbas KR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 31%, Dnipro-1 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.