FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as FC Mariupol welcome Vorskla Poltava to Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Mariupol — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, FC Mariupol have gone 0W 0D 9L this season (9 games, 0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Mariupol have won 0, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–5 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Mariupol in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 61% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 72% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.14 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.882 / defence 1.375 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.825 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Data: 18 FC Mariupol games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Vorskla Poltava 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: FC Mariupol 56% | Vorskla Poltava 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Mariupol 1.14 / Vorskla Poltava 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.882 / def 1.375 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.825 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Vorskla Poltava xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 31% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Mariupol's attack at 0.88x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
31%
3.25
27%
3.76
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.53
1.39
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.39 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Mariupol come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 2D 14L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Mariupol's home form reads 0W 0D 8L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 games (0.44 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Mariupol or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Vorskla Poltava 5-1 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 50%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (FC Mariupol) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Mariupol have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Mariupol's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Mariupol vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Mariupol's matches and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Mariupol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 30, as FC Mariupol and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.14 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.39 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 43%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 72%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.