FC Mariupol vs Inhulets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inhulets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Mariupol vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Inhulets travel to Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka to take on FC Mariupol. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this season: 0W 0D 9L from 9 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Mariupol 0.40 PPG, Inhulets 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Mariupol, 1 for Inhulets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Inhulets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Mariupol trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 59% versus Inhulets 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 76% | Inhulets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.19 xG and Inhulets 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.815 / defence 1.524 | Inhulets attack 0.716 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing FC Mariupol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Mariupol games / 17 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 33% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Inhulets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: FC Mariupol 56% | Inhulets 44%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 33% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Mariupol 1.19 / Inhulets 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.815 / def 1.524 | Inhulets attack 0.716 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Inhulets xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Inhulets kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Inhulets part of?
FC Mariupol vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 33% chance of winning, Inhulets a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Mariupol and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 1W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Inhulets in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Mariupol's attack at 0.81x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.73
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.52
1.33
Inhulets xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.33 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Mariupol come into this having played 17 games, going 2W 1D 14L for 0.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Mariupol on 0.41 PPG, Inhulets on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Mariupol's home form reads 0W 0D 9L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.41 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.53 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Inhulets in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 14L in their last 17 games (0.41 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Inhulets away?
Inhulets's away record (0.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Mariupol and Inhulets runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Inhulets?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Inhulets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Inhulets 3-0 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Inhulets?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 56%, Inhulets 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for FC Mariupol and 56% for Inhulets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Mariupol have failed to score in 44% of games; Inhulets in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 44% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Mariupol's matches and 56% of Inhulets's.
Do FC Mariupol and Inhulets tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Mariupol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 21, as FC Mariupol and Inhulets drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.19 xG and Inhulets 1.33 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Inhulets landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.81 / defence 1.52 against Inhulets attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 33% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 40%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 76%, Inhulets 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Mariupol 0.41 PPG, Inhulets 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.78 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.