Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Chornomorets to Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 0.83 (Chornomorets). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 83% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0% | Chornomorets 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% | Chornomorets 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.14 xG and Chornomorets 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.755 / defence 0.966 | Chornomorets attack 0.663 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.042. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 6 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44% | Draw 37% | Chornomorets 19%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Chornomorets 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Chornomorets 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44% | Draw 37% | Chornomorets 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.14 / Chornomorets 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.755 / def 0.966 | Chornomorets attack 0.663 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Chornomorets xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 44% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
44%
2.28
37%
2.67
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
1.80
0.67
Chornomorets xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.67 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.83 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0% BTTS, Chornomorets 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 17% for Chornomorets.
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chornomorets in 33%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 83% of games; Chornomorets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 33% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 17% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.