Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Dynamo Kyiv welcome Vorskla Poltava to NSK Olimpijs'kyj. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 1D 0L this season (7 games, 2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 7 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (13 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (13 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dynamo Kyiv 31% | Vorskla Poltava 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 46% | Vorskla Poltava 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.547 / defence 0.656 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.891 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.162. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.547 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Dynamo Kyiv games / 13 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 13%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Vorskla Poltava 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 0% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 / Vorskla Poltava 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.547 / def 0.656 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.891 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Vorskla Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 60% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
60%
1.68
27%
3.67
13%
7.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.35
0.68
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
7.57
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
2%
40.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.68 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 13 games, going 11W 2D 0L for 2.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.62 scored and 0.77 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Vorskla Poltava's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 games (2.69 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.50 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dynamo Kyiv 0% BTTS, Vorskla Poltava 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dynamo Kyiv and 25% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 25% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.68 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.55 / defence 0.66 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 13%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Vorskla Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 46%, Vorskla Poltava 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (13 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (13 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.92. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.