Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Oleksandria at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dynamo Kyiv at 1.70 PPG versus Oleksandria's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dynamo Kyiv have won 1, Oleksandria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 41% versus Oleksandria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 56% | Oleksandria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.39 xG and Oleksandria 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.141 / defence 0.912 | Oleksandria attack 1.116 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.231. Data: 27 Dynamo Kyiv games / 27 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 40% | Draw 26% | Oleksandria 34%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Oleksandria 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 40% | Oleksandria 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 40% | Draw 26% | Oleksandria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.39 / Oleksandria 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.141 / def 0.912 | Oleksandria attack 1.116 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Oleksandria xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv 3 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 40% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.14x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.83
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.64
1.25
Oleksandria xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.25 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 19W 4D 4L from 27 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 7L across 27 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 9W 3D 2L from 14 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 4W 7D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Oleksandria's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Oleksandria in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 19W 4D 4L in their last 27 games (2.26 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Oleksandria away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.14 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
From 9 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Oleksandria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 29%, Oleksandria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 43% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Oleksandria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 57% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 43% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 3-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.39 xG and Oleksandria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Oleksandria attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 40% | Draw 26% | Oleksandria 34%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 56%, Oleksandria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.