Dynamo Kyiv 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dynamo Kyiv welcome Dnipro-1 to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dynamo Kyiv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dynamo Kyiv's home record at Arena L'viv: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Premier League appearances (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dnipro-1 haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Dynamo Kyiv) versus 2.40 (Dnipro-1). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for Dnipro-1 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Dnipro-1 trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 39% versus Dnipro-1 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 50% | Dnipro-1 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.16 xG and Dnipro-1 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.042 / defence 0.976 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.012 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.111. Data: 18 Dynamo Kyiv games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 34%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Dnipro-1 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 22% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (18 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.16 / Dnipro-1 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.042 / def 0.976 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.012 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dnipro-1 xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1?
Dynamo Kyiv 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 37% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dynamo Kyiv's attack rating (1.04) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (18/18 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.49
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.26
1.10
Dnipro-1 xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.10 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Dynamo Kyiv have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 14W 3D 1L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. Dynamo Kyiv haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Dnipro-1's form line: 13W 1D 4L from 18 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. Dnipro-1 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dynamo Kyiv on 2.50 PPG, Dnipro-1 on 2.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.94 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Dnipro-1's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Pre-Season
Dnipro-1
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 games (2.50 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.22 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dynamo Kyiv 22% BTTS, Dnipro-1 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 56% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 33% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 56% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dynamo Kyiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Dynamo Kyiv 0-3 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.16 xG and Dnipro-1 1.10 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/18 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 34%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 50%, Dnipro-1 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo Kyiv 2.50 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dnipro-1 win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.