Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Shakhtar Donetsk at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 8W 0D 1L at Dnipro Arena — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 0L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dnipro-1 at 2.40 PPG versus Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dnipro-1, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 39% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.374 / defence 1.078 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.073 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Dnipro-1 games / 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 37% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 37%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.70. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dnipro-1 44% | Shakhtar Donetsk 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 37% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Dnipro-1 1.41 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.374 / def 1.078 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.073 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at Dnipro Arena.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 37% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.37x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
37%
2.67
25%
3.97
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.82
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.41 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 13W 1D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 15W 2D 1L from 18 games, 2.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dnipro-1 on 2.22 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk on 2.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.67 PPG from 9 outings (8W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 0L from 9 away games — 2.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.72 scored and 0.56 conceded. Dnipro-1's scoring rate against Shakhtar Donetsk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 (2.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 44%, Shakhtar Donetsk 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dnipro-1 and 56% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 33% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 56% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.41 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.37 / defence 1.08 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 37% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 37%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, Shakhtar Donetsk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.22 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.