Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host FC Kharkiv at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dnipro Arena, Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 0D 1L this season (9 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dnipro-1 are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 39% versus FC Kharkiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.383 / defence 1.077 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.653 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dnipro-1 games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | FC Kharkiv 16%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | FC Kharkiv 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 44% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | FC Kharkiv 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Dnipro-1 1.96 / FC Kharkiv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.383 / def 1.077 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.653 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.86
FC Kharkiv xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Dnipro Arena.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 63% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.75
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.82
0.86
FC Kharkiv xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
45.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.86 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 13W 1D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 1D 11L from 18 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.67 PPG from 9 outings (8W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 44%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dnipro-1) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.38 / defence 1.08 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | FC Kharkiv 16%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.