Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to Dnipro Arena to take on Dnipro-1. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 8W 0D 1L at Dnipro Arena — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 1D 0L from 9 away outings — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dnipro-1 2.40 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dnipro-1, 1 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dnipro-1 trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 39% versus Dynamo Kyiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.47 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.286 / defence 1.095 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.196 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Dnipro-1 games / 18 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 35% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 44% | Dynamo Kyiv 56%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 35% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Dnipro-1 1.47 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.286 / def 1.095 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.196 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Dynamo Kyiv xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Dnipro Arena.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 35% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 1W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.29x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.18
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.60
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.60 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 18 games, going 13W 1D 4L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.50 PPG from 18 outings (14W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dnipro-1 on 2.22 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv on 2.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dnipro-1's home form reads 8W 0D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.78 points per game from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L).
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.61 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dnipro-1's scoring rate against Dynamo Kyiv's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.78 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 44%, Dynamo Kyiv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dnipro-1 and 56% for Dynamo Kyiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv finished level at 0-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.47 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.60 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.29 / defence 1.09 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 35% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, Dynamo Kyiv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.22 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.