Dnipro-1 vs Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Desna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Desna travel to Dnipro Arena to take on Dnipro-1. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 8W 0D 1L at Dnipro Arena — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Desna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1 are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dnipro-1, 1 for Desna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Desna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Desna in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 39% versus Desna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | Desna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.91 xG and Desna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.409 / defence 1.072 | Desna attack 0.786 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.218. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dnipro-1 games / 18 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 58% | Draw 22% | Desna 20%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Desna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 44% | Desna 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 58% | Draw 22% | Desna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Dnipro-1 1.91 / Desna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.409 / def 1.072 | Desna attack 0.786 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Desna xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Desna kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Dnipro Arena.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Desna part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Desna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 58% chance of winning, Desna a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 0W | Draws 0 | Desna 1W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Desna in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.41) and Desna's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.54
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.94
1.03
Desna xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
33.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.03 for Desna, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Desna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 13W 1D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna's form line: 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Desna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.67 PPG from 9 outings (8W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Desna have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Desna in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Desna away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; Desna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Desna runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 0, Desna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2021, when Desna 2-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 44%, Desna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dnipro-1 and 56% for Desna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Desna in 33%; Desna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 44% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 56% of Desna's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Desna tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Desna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Dnipro-1 and Desna drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.91 xG and Desna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.41 / defence 1.07 against Desna attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 58% | Draw 22% | Desna 20%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, Desna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.